Twenty-seven-year time trends in dementia incidence in Europe and the United States: The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium

Frank J. Wolters, Lori B. Chibnik, Reem Waziry, Roy Anderson, Claudine Berr, Alexa Beiser, Joshua C. Bis, Deborah Blacker, Daniel Bos, Carol Brayne, Jean François Dartigues, Sirwan K.L. Darweesh, Kendra L. Davis-Plourde, Frank De Wolf, Stephanie Debette, Carole Dufouil, Myriam Fornage, Jaap Goudsmit, Leslie Grasset, Vilmundur GudnasonChristoforos Hadjichrysanthou, Catherine Helmer, M. Arfan Ikram, M. Kamran Ikram, Erik Joas, Silke Kern, Lewis H. Kuller, Lenore Launer, Oscar L. Lopez, Fiona E. Matthews, Kevin McRae-Mckee, Osorio Meirelles, Thomas H. Mosley, Matthew P. Pase, Bruce M. Psaty, Claudia L. Satizabal, Sudha Seshadri, Ingmar Skoog, Blossom C.M. Stephan, Hanna Wetterberg, Mei Mei Wong, Anna Zettergren, Albert Hofman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

235 Scopus citations


Objective To determine changes in the incidence of dementia between 1988 and 2015.MethodsThis analysis was performed in aggregated data from individuals >65 years of age in 7 population-based cohort studies in the United States and Europe from the Alzheimer Cohort Consortium. First, we calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates for all-cause dementia, and then defined nonoverlapping 5-year epochs within each study to determine trends in incidence. Estimates of change per 10-year interval were pooled and results are presented combined and stratified by sex.ResultsOf 49,202 individuals, 4,253 (8.6%) developed dementia. The incidence rate of dementia increased with age, similarly for women and men, ranging from about 4 per 1,000 person-years in individuals aged 65-69 years to 65 per 1,000 person-years for those aged 85-89 years. The incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per calendar decade (95% confidence interval [CI], 7%-19%), consistently across studies, and somewhat more pronouncedly in men than in women (24% [95% CI 14%-32%] vs 8% [0%-15%]).ConclusionThe incidence rate of dementia in Europe and North America has declined by 13% per decade over the past 25 years, consistently across studies. Incidence is similar for men and women, although declines were somewhat more profound in men. These observations call for sustained efforts to finding the causes for this decline, as well as determining their validity in geographically and ethnically diverse populations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)E519-E531
Issue number5
StatePublished - 4 Aug 2020
Externally publishedYes


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