Surveillance Implications of Recurrence Patterns in Early Node-Negative Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Background: There are limited data regarding optimal surveillance after curative resection for esophageal cancer. Once disease recurrence is diagnosed, the prognosis is poor. The purpose of this article was to characterize disease recurrence in patients with early esophageal adenocarcinoma. Methods: Two hundred sixty patients were identified from a prospective institutional database with pathologic T1 and T2 node-negative disease therapy treated with curative esophagectomy alone for esophageal adenocarcinoma between 1995 and 2017. Competing risk analysis was used to analyze factors associated with recurrence. Results: The 5-year cumulative incidence of recurrence was 12%. Predictive factors for increased risk of recurrence included increasing tumor size, poor differentiation, and pathologic T2 disease (P < .05), whereas presence of Barrett's esophagus on pathology was protective. Recurrence within 2 years was 2.5%, 6.1%, and 12% for T1a, T1b, and T2 disease, respectively. At 5 years cumulative incidence of recurrence was 8.2%, 11.5% and 22.2%, respectively. Median overall survival after recurrence was 1.04 years (95% confidence interval, 0.7-2.4). There were 14 subclinical and 13 symptomatic recurrences; patients with symptomatic recurrence had a significantly shorter overall survival after recurrence occurred (0.31 vs 0.71 years, P = .018). Conclusions: Among early node-negative patients with esophageal cancer undergoing curative resection, 5-year recurrence was 12%. Survival after recurrence was poor, and only a few patients had isolated locoregional recurrence at time of diagnosis, suggesting that scheduled surveillance may have an important role.