Successive respiratory syncytial virus epidemics in local populations arise from multiple variant introductions, providing insights into virus persistence

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a global respiratory pathogen of humans, with infection occurring characteristically as recurrent seasonal epidemics. Unlike influenza viruses, little attention has been paid to the mechanism underlying worldwide spread and persistence of RSV and how this may be discerned through an improved understanding of the introduction and persistence of RSV in local communities. We analyzed 651 attachment (G) glycoprotein nucleotide sequences of RSV B collected over 11 epidemics (2002 to 2012) in Kilifi, Kenya, and contemporaneous data collected elsewhere in Kenya and 18 other countries worldwide (2002 to 2012). Based on phylogeny, genetic distance and clustering patterns, we set out pragmatic criteria to classify local viruses into distinct genotypes and variants, identifying those newly introduced and those locally persisting. Three genotypes were identified in the Kilifidata set: BA (n = 500), SAB1 (n = 148), and SAB4 (n = 3). Recurrent RSV epidemics in the local population were composed of numerous genetic variants, most of which have been newly introduced rather than persisting in the location from season to season. Global comparison revealed that (i) most Kilifivariants do not cluster closely with strains from outside Kenya, (ii) some Kilifivariants were closely related to those observed outside Kenya (mostly Western Europe), and (iii) many variants were circulating elsewhere but were never detected in Kilifi. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that year-to-year presence of RSV at the local level (i.e., Kilifi) is achieved primarily, but not exclusively, through introductions from a pool of variants that are geographically restricted (i.e., to Kenya or to the region) rather than global.