Reliability of observation variables in distinguishing infectious outcome of febrile young infants

We propsectively evaluated 7 observation variables (level of activity, level of alertness, respiratory status/effort, peripheral perfusion, muscle tone, affect, feeding pattern) which qualify patient clinical appearance in order to determine reliability in distinguishing the infectious outcome of 233 febrile infants ages 0 to 8 weeks. Each variable was graded either 1, 3, or 5, with a higher score indicative of a greater degree of compromise. All infants received physical examination and sepsis evaluation (lumbar puncture, complete blood count/blood culture, urinalysis/urine culture).The 3 outcome groups compared were 29 cases of serious bacterial infections, (+SBI; 10 with bacterial meningitis, 12 with bacteremia, 7 with urinary tract infection), 45 cases of aseptic meningitis (AM) and 159 cases culture-negative with normal cerebrospinal fluid (CN-NCSF). The mean score for each of the 7 variables was significantly greater in the +SBI group compared with both the AM and CN-NCSF groups (p<0.05), whereas there was no significant difference in mean score for each of the 7 variables between the AM and CN-NCSF groups. Stepwise discriminant analysis identified 3 variables that best distinguished outcome: Affect; respiratory status/effort; and peripheral perfusion, which constituted the Young Infant Observation Scale. The mean total Young Infant Observation Scale score generated from assessing these 3 variables was significantly greater (p=0.0001) in the +SBI, group (9) compared with both the AM (5) and CN-NCSF (5) groups. A total Young Infant Observation Scale score ≥7 had a sensitivity of 76%, specificity of 75% and negative-predictive value of 96% for outcome of +SBI.