Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City

Stephen M. Kissler; Nishant Kishore; Malavika Prabhu; Dena Goffman; Yaakov Beilin; Ruth Landau; Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman; Brian T. Bateman; Jon Snyder; Armin S. Razavi; Daniel Katz; Jonathan Gal; Angela Bianco; Joanne Stone; Daniel Larremore; Caroline O. Buckee; Yonatan H. Grad

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18271-5

Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City

Stephen M. Kissler
, Nishant Kishore
, Malavika Prabhu
, Dena Goffman
, Yaakov Beilin
, Ruth Landau
, Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman
, Brian T. Bateman
, Jon Snyder
, Armin S. Razavi
, Daniel Katz
, Jonathan Gal
, Angela Bianco
, Joanne Stone
, Daniel Larremore
, Caroline O. Buckee
, Yonatan H. Grad

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

88 Scopus citations

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and hospitalizations differ substantially between New York City neighborhoods. Mitigation efforts require knowing the extent to which these disparities reflect differences in prevalence and understanding the associated drivers. Here, we report the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City boroughs inferred using tests administered to 1,746 pregnant women hospitalized for delivery between March 22nd and May 3rd, 2020. We also assess the relationship between prevalence and commuting-style movements into and out of each borough. Prevalence ranged from 11.3% (95% credible interval [8.9%, 13.9%]) in Manhattan to 26.0% (15.3%, 38.9%) in South Queens, with an estimated city-wide prevalence of 15.6% (13.9%, 17.4%). Prevalence was lowest in boroughs with the greatest reductions in morning movements out of and evening movements into the borough (Pearson R = −0.88 [−0.52, −0.99]). Widespread testing is needed to further specify disparities in prevalence and assess the risk of future outbreaks.

Original language	English
Article number	4674
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	11
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18271-5
State	Published - 1 Dec 2020

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Kissler, S. M., Kishore, N., Prabhu, M., Goffman, D., Beilin, Y., Landau, R., Gyamfi-Bannerman, C., Bateman, B. T., Snyder, J., Razavi, A. S., Katz, D., Gal, J., Bianco, A., Stone, J., Larremore, D., Buckee, C. O., & Grad, Y. H. (2020). Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City. Nature Communications, 11(1), Article 4674. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18271-5

@article{39cfab436f754a989e0c2ffc1bb3039e,

title = "Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City",

abstract = "SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and hospitalizations differ substantially between New York City neighborhoods. Mitigation efforts require knowing the extent to which these disparities reflect differences in prevalence and understanding the associated drivers. Here, we report the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City boroughs inferred using tests administered to 1,746 pregnant women hospitalized for delivery between March 22nd and May 3rd, 2020. We also assess the relationship between prevalence and commuting-style movements into and out of each borough. Prevalence ranged from 11.3\% (95\% credible interval [8.9\%, 13.9\%]) in Manhattan to 26.0\% (15.3\%, 38.9\%) in South Queens, with an estimated city-wide prevalence of 15.6\% (13.9\%, 17.4\%). Prevalence was lowest in boroughs with the greatest reductions in morning movements out of and evening movements into the borough (Pearson R = −0.88 [−0.52, −0.99]). Widespread testing is needed to further specify disparities in prevalence and assess the risk of future outbreaks.",

author = "Kissler, \{Stephen M.\} and Nishant Kishore and Malavika Prabhu and Dena Goffman and Yaakov Beilin and Ruth Landau and Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman and Bateman, \{Brian T.\} and Jon Snyder and Razavi, \{Armin S.\} and Daniel Katz and Jonathan Gal and Angela Bianco and Joanne Stone and Daniel Larremore and Buckee, \{Caroline O.\} and Grad, \{Yonatan H.\}",

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-020-18271-5",

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Kissler, SM, Kishore, N, Prabhu, M, Goffman, D, Beilin, Y, Landau, R, Gyamfi-Bannerman, C, Bateman, BT, Snyder, J, Razavi, AS, Katz, D, Gal, J, Bianco, A , Stone, J, Larremore, D, Buckee, CO & Grad, YH 2020, 'Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City', Nature Communications, vol. 11, no. 1, 4674. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18271-5

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T1 - Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City

AU - Kissler, Stephen M.

AU - Kishore, Nishant

AU - Prabhu, Malavika

AU - Goffman, Dena

AU - Beilin, Yaakov

AU - Landau, Ruth

AU - Gyamfi-Bannerman, Cynthia

AU - Bateman, Brian T.

AU - Snyder, Jon

AU - Razavi, Armin S.

AU - Katz, Daniel

AU - Gal, Jonathan

AU - Bianco, Angela

AU - Stone, Joanne

AU - Larremore, Daniel

AU - Buckee, Caroline O.

AU - Grad, Yonatan H.

PY - 2020/12/1

Y1 - 2020/12/1

N2 - SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and hospitalizations differ substantially between New York City neighborhoods. Mitigation efforts require knowing the extent to which these disparities reflect differences in prevalence and understanding the associated drivers. Here, we report the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City boroughs inferred using tests administered to 1,746 pregnant women hospitalized for delivery between March 22nd and May 3rd, 2020. We also assess the relationship between prevalence and commuting-style movements into and out of each borough. Prevalence ranged from 11.3% (95% credible interval [8.9%, 13.9%]) in Manhattan to 26.0% (15.3%, 38.9%) in South Queens, with an estimated city-wide prevalence of 15.6% (13.9%, 17.4%). Prevalence was lowest in boroughs with the greatest reductions in morning movements out of and evening movements into the borough (Pearson R = −0.88 [−0.52, −0.99]). Widespread testing is needed to further specify disparities in prevalence and assess the risk of future outbreaks.

AB - SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and hospitalizations differ substantially between New York City neighborhoods. Mitigation efforts require knowing the extent to which these disparities reflect differences in prevalence and understanding the associated drivers. Here, we report the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City boroughs inferred using tests administered to 1,746 pregnant women hospitalized for delivery between March 22nd and May 3rd, 2020. We also assess the relationship between prevalence and commuting-style movements into and out of each borough. Prevalence ranged from 11.3% (95% credible interval [8.9%, 13.9%]) in Manhattan to 26.0% (15.3%, 38.9%) in South Queens, with an estimated city-wide prevalence of 15.6% (13.9%, 17.4%). Prevalence was lowest in boroughs with the greatest reductions in morning movements out of and evening movements into the borough (Pearson R = −0.88 [−0.52, −0.99]). Widespread testing is needed to further specify disparities in prevalence and assess the risk of future outbreaks.

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DO - 10.1038/s41467-020-18271-5

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AN - SCOPUS:85091129334

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VL - 11

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 4674

ER -

Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City

Abstract

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