Real-World Predictors of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events and Major Adverse Limb Events Among Patients with Chronic Coronary Artery Disease and/or Peripheral Arterial Disease

Introduction: Collectively, coronary artery disease (CAD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) are highly prevalent and are associated with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and major adverse limb events (MALE). Improved ability to identify those at highest risk of these events may help optimize secondary prevention efforts in this population. Methods: Using the Optum Integrated Database, a healthcare claims database linked to electronic medical records (EMR), we identified patients with CAD and/or PAD between January 1, 2009, and September 30, 2016. Index date was the earliest date on which chronic and stable disease was established. Follow-up ran from index date until earliest of patient death, plan disenrollment, or end of study. We developed multivariate Cox proportional hazards models to identify predictors of MACE and/or MALE, limited to measures presumed available to clinicians during patient encounters (e.g., age, presence of selected comorbidities). Results: A total of 20,932 patients met all selection criteria; 86.9% had CAD and 26.1% had PAD; 13% (n = 2753) experienced MACE and/or MALE during a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, for a rate of 7.1 events per 100 person-years (PYs). We identified 11 predictors of MACE and/or MALE. Most (95.1%) patients had ≥ 1 predictors; 34.0% and 6.9% had ≥ 4 and ≥ 6, respectively. Incidence of MACE and/or MALE was strongly correlated with number of predictors (r² = 0.98), ranging from 2.3 per 100 PYs among those without predictors (4.9% of patients) to 18.7 per 100 PYs among those with ≥ 6 (6.9%). Patients with ≥ 1 predictor experienced 7.4 MACE and/or MALE per 100 PYs. Conclusion: Readily identifiable predictors can be used to identify subgroups with chronic CAD and/or PAD at elevated risk of MACE and/or MALE. Further research is required to understand the degree to which these subgroups may benefit from early identification and treatment with secondary prevention therapies. Funding: Janssen Pharmaceuticals.