TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognostic value of cardiac risk factors and coronary artery calcium screening for all-cause mortality
AU - Shaw, Leslee J.
AU - Raggi, Paolo
AU - Schisterman, Enrique
AU - Berman, Daniel S.
AU - Callister, Tracy Q.
PY - 2003/9/1
Y1 - 2003/9/1
N2 - PURPOSE: To develop risk-adjusted multivariable models that included risk factors and coronary calcium scores determined with electron-beam computed tomography (CT) in asymptomatic patients for the prediction of all-cause mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We followed up a cohort of 10,377 asymptomatic individuals undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and coronary calcium screening with electron-beam CT. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality. Risk-adjusted models incorporated traditional risk factors for coronary disease and coronary calcium scores. RESULTS: Cardiac risk factors such as family history of coronary disease (69%), hypercholesterolemia (62%), hypertension (44%), smoking (40%), and diabetes (9%) were prevalent. The frequency of coronary calcium scores was 57%, 20%, 14%, 6%, and 3% for scores of 10 or less, 11-100, 101-400, 401-1,000, and greater than 1,000, respectively. During a mean follow-up of 5.0 years ± 0.0086 (standard error of the mean), the death rate was 2.4%. In a risk-adjusted model (model χ2 = 388.2, P < .001), coronary calcium was an independent predictor of mortality (P < .001). Risk-adjusted relative risk values for coronary calcium were 1.64, 1.74, 2.54, and 4.03 for scores of 11-100, 101-400, 401-1,000, and greater than 1,000, respectively (P < .001 for all values), as compared with that for a score of 10 or less. Five-year risk-adjusted survival was 99.0% for a calcium score of 10 or less and 95.0% for a score of greater than 1,000 (P < .001). With a receiver operating characteristic curve, the concordance index increased from 0.72 for cardiac risk factors alone to 0.78 (P < .001) when the calcium score was added to a multivariable model for prediction of death. CONCLUSION: This large observational data series shows that coronary calcium provides independent incremental information in addition to traditional risk factors in the prediction of all-cause mortality.
AB - PURPOSE: To develop risk-adjusted multivariable models that included risk factors and coronary calcium scores determined with electron-beam computed tomography (CT) in asymptomatic patients for the prediction of all-cause mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We followed up a cohort of 10,377 asymptomatic individuals undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and coronary calcium screening with electron-beam CT. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality. Risk-adjusted models incorporated traditional risk factors for coronary disease and coronary calcium scores. RESULTS: Cardiac risk factors such as family history of coronary disease (69%), hypercholesterolemia (62%), hypertension (44%), smoking (40%), and diabetes (9%) were prevalent. The frequency of coronary calcium scores was 57%, 20%, 14%, 6%, and 3% for scores of 10 or less, 11-100, 101-400, 401-1,000, and greater than 1,000, respectively. During a mean follow-up of 5.0 years ± 0.0086 (standard error of the mean), the death rate was 2.4%. In a risk-adjusted model (model χ2 = 388.2, P < .001), coronary calcium was an independent predictor of mortality (P < .001). Risk-adjusted relative risk values for coronary calcium were 1.64, 1.74, 2.54, and 4.03 for scores of 11-100, 101-400, 401-1,000, and greater than 1,000, respectively (P < .001 for all values), as compared with that for a score of 10 or less. Five-year risk-adjusted survival was 99.0% for a calcium score of 10 or less and 95.0% for a score of greater than 1,000 (P < .001). With a receiver operating characteristic curve, the concordance index increased from 0.72 for cardiac risk factors alone to 0.78 (P < .001) when the calcium score was added to a multivariable model for prediction of death. CONCLUSION: This large observational data series shows that coronary calcium provides independent incremental information in addition to traditional risk factors in the prediction of all-cause mortality.
KW - Computed tomography (CT), electron beam
KW - Conary vessels, calcification
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0041429139&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1148/radiol.2283021006
DO - 10.1148/radiol.2283021006
M3 - Article
C2 - 12869688
AN - SCOPUS:0041429139
SN - 0033-8419
VL - 228
SP - 826
EP - 833
JO - Radiology
JF - Radiology
IS - 3
ER -