Prognostic significance of mucosal aneuploidy in stage Ta/T1 grade 3 carcinoma of the bladder

In a prospective series of 71 patients with newly detected grade 3, stages Ta and T1 bladder carcinoma tumor characteristics, including the results of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) analysis as well as morphological and DNA characteristics of the grossly normal urothelium, were investigated and related to progression-free survival. The mean duration of followup was 57 months, with a minimum of 24 months. Of the 71 patients 24 underwent primary cystectomy, and 47 were conservatively treated with transurethral resection alone, or followed by instillation therapy or irradiation therapy. Of the cystectomy and conservatively treated patients 2 (8%) and 16 (34%), respectively, died of bladder carcinoma. Among the 47 conservatively treated patients tumor progression could not be predicted by the initial characteristics of tumor stage, papillary or nonpapillary growth, tumor multiplicity, tumor size, existence of 1 or multiple aneuploid cell populations, S phase value, carcinoma in situ and atypia or aneuploidy in the mucosal biopsies. Neither was progression predicted by the recurrence rate during year 1 of observation. However, a change to or persistent mucosal aneuploidy and a change to or persistent morphological abnormality of the mucosa during year 1 of observation were predictive for tumor progression (p = 0.001 and 0.045, respectively). When compared in stepwise regression analysis (Cox's proportional hazard model), DNA aneuploidy in the mucosa at 12 months after diagnosis was a highly significant predictor, whereas morphology added no further prognostic information. Therefore, progression is related to gross chromosomal abnormalities of the mucosa. High risk patients can be identified by evaluation of the grossly normal mucosa, which should be done as part of the initial diagnosis and during followup in conservatively treated patients with stages Ta and T1, grade 3 bladder carcinoma.