Prognostic early snapshot stratification of autism based on adaptive functioning

A major goal of precision medicine is to predict prognosis based on individualized information at the earliest possible points in development. Using early snapshots of adaptive functioning and unsupervised data-driven discovery methods, we uncover highly stable early autism subtypes that yield information relevant to later prognosis. Data from the National Institute of Mental Health Data Archive (NDA) (n = 1,098) was used to uncover three early subtypes (<72 months) that generalize with 96% accuracy. Outcome data from NDA (n = 2,561; mean age, 13 years) also reproducibly clusters into three subtypes with 99% generalization accuracy. Early snapshot subtypes predict developmental trajectories in non-verbal cognitive, language and motor domains and are predictive of membership in different adaptive functioning outcome subtypes. Robust and prognosis-relevant subtyping of autism based on early snapshots of adaptive functioning may aid future research work via prediction of these subtypes with our reproducible stratification model.