Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma response to radiation segmentectomy using an MRI-based machine learning approach

Purpose: To evaluate the value of pre-treatment MRI-based radiomics in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for the prediction of response to Yttrium 90 radiation segmentectomy. Methods: This retrospective study included 154 patients (38 female; mean age 66.8 years) who underwent contrast-enhanced MRI prior to radiation segmentectomy. Radiomics features were manually extracted on volumes of interest on post-contrast T1-weighted images at the portal venous phase (PVP). Tumor-based response assessment was evaluated 6 months post-treatment using mRECIST. A logistic regression model was used to predict binary response outcome [complete response at 6 months with no-re-treatment (response group) against the rest (non-response group, including partial response, progressive disease, stable disease and complete response after re-treatment within 6 months after radiation segmentectomy) using baseline clinical parameters and radiomics features. We accessed the value of different sets of predictors using cross-validation technique. AUCs were compared using DeLong tests. Results: A total 168 HCCs (mean size 2.9 ± 1.7 cm) were analyzed in 154 patients. The response group consisted of 113 HCCs and the non-response group of 55 HCCs. Baseline clinical parameters (AUC 0.531; sensitivity, 0.781; specificity, 0.279; positive predictive value (PPV), 0.345; negative predictive value (NPV), 0.724) and AFP (AUC 0.632; sensitivity, 0.833; specificity, 0.466; PPV, 0.432; NPV, 0.851) showed poor performance for response prediction. The model using a combination of radiomics features and clinical parameters/AFP showed the best performance (AUC 0.736; sensitivity, 0.706; specificity, 0.662; PPV 0.504; NPV, 0.822), significantly better than the clinical model (p < 0.001) or AFP alone (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The combination of radiomics features from pre-treatment MRI with clinical parameters and AFP showed fair performance for predicting HCC response to radiation segmentectomy, better than that of AFP. These results need further validation.