Prediction of Cytomegalovirus Reactivation by Recipient Cytomegalovirus-IgG Titer before Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Recipient cytomegalovirus (CMV) seropositivity is known to be a risk factor for CMV reactivation after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT). We explored the association of CMV-IgG titer of recipients with CMV reactivation after allo-HCT and developed a model for predicting CMV reactivation for the purpose of identifying a high-risk group. In addition, we evaluated the impact of CMV-IgG titer on survival outcomes and acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). We retrospectively analyzed 309 patients who achieved neutrophil engraftment after allo-HCT and evaluated whether pretransplantation recipient CMV-IgG titer was associated with transplantation outcomes, including CMV reactivation. Using the best cutoff value determined by a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, we divided the study cohort into 3 groups: high-titer, low-titer, and negative. CMV reactivation occurred most frequently in the high-titer group, followed by the low-titer and negative groups (81%, 37%, and 16%, respectively, at 180 days after allo-HCT; P < .01). In a multivariate analysis, recipient CMV-IgG titer was significantly associated with subsequent CMV reactivation (hazard ratio [HR], 9.31 in the high-titer group [P < .01] and 2.91 in the low-titer group [P = .023]). CMV diseases were observed exclusively in the high-titer group. Overall survival (OS) was lower in the high-titer group compared with the other 2 groups (2-year OS, 56%, 60%, and 80%, respectively; P = .075), whereas the cumulative incidences of grade II-IV acute GVHD, nonrelapse mortality (NRM), and relapse were not significantly different among the 3 groups. In multivariate analyses, CMV-IgG titer was not associated with increased risks of these outcomes, although CMV reactivation itself was identified as a risk factor for NRM (HR, 3.05; P = .002). Our data demonstrate that a higher titer of recipient CMV-IgG is predictive of CMV reactivation after allo-HCT. Further investigation is needed to determine how to apply these results to prophylactic or preemptive strategies against CMV, considering recipient CMV-IgG titer for effective risk stratification.