Prediction of atherosclerotic disease progression combining computational modelling with machine learning

Antonis I. Sakellarios, Vasileios C. Pezoulas, Christos Bourantas, Katerina K. Naka, Lampros K. Michalis, Patrick W. Serruys, Gregg Stone, Hector M. Garcia-Garcia, Dimitrios I. Fotiadis

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Non-invasive serial computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) was acquired from 32 patients and 3D reconstruction of 58 coronary arteries was achieved. The arterial geometries were utilized for blood flow and LDL transport modelling. Navier-Stokes and convection-diffusion equations were employed for simulation of blood flow and LDL transport, respectively. Disease progression was assessed comparing the follow-up and baseline arterial models after co-registration using side branches as anatomical landmarks. A machine learning model for predicting disease progression was built using the Gradient Boosted Trees (GBT) algorithm. The Accuracy, Sensitivity, Specificity and AUC of the developed methodology for predicting lumen area decrease equal was 0.68, 0.56, 0.34 and 0.59, respectively. The best results were found for the prediction of plaque area increase by 20%, with 0.73, 0.67, 0.86, and 0.76 accuracy, sensitivity, specificity andAUC, respectively. This approach outperforms significantly the predictive capability of models based on binary logistic regression.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication42nd Annual International Conferences of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society
Subtitle of host publicationEnabling Innovative Technologies for Global Healthcare, EMBC 2020
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages2760-2763
Number of pages4
ISBN (Electronic)9781728119908
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2020
Externally publishedYes
Event42nd Annual International Conferences of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, EMBC 2020 - Montreal, Canada
Duration: 20 Jul 202024 Jul 2020

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, EMBS
Volume2020-July
ISSN (Print)1557-170X

Conference

Conference42nd Annual International Conferences of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, EMBC 2020
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityMontreal
Period20/07/2024/07/20

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