Predicted Lifetime Health Outcomes for Aducanumab in Patients with Early Alzheimer’s Disease

William L. Herring, Ian Gopal Gould, Howard Fillit, Peter Lindgren, Fiona Forrestal, Robin Thompson, Peter Pemberton-Ross

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

17 Scopus citations


Introduction: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a chronic and progressive neurodegenerative disease that places a substantial burden on patients and caregivers. Aducanumab is the first AD therapy approved by the US Food and Drug Administration to reduce a defining pathophysiological feature of the disease, brain amyloid plaques. In the phase 3 clinical trial EMERGE (NCT02484547), aducanumab reduced clinical decline in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD and mild AD dementia and confirmed amyloid pathology. Methods: We used a Markov modeling approach to predict the long-term clinical benefits of aducanumab for patients with early AD based on EMERGE efficacy data. In the model, patients could transition between AD severity levels (MCI due to AD; mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia) and care settings (community vs. institution) or transition to death. The intervention was aducanumab added to standard of care (SOC), and the comparator was SOC alone. Data sources for base-case and scenario analyses included EMERGE, published National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center analyses, and other published literature. Results: Per patient over a lifetime horizon, aducanumab treatment corresponded to 0.65 incremental patient quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and 0.09 fewer caregiver QALYs lost compared with patients treated with SOC. Aducanumab treatment translated to a lower lifetime probability of transitioning to AD dementia, a lower lifetime probability of transitioning to institutionalization (25.2% vs. 29.4%), delays in the median time to transition to AD dementia (7.50 vs. 4.92 years from MCI to moderate AD dementia or worse), and an incremental median time in the community of 1.32 years compared with SOC. Conclusion: The model predicted long-term benefits of aducanumab treatment in patients with MCI due to AD and mild AD dementia and their caregivers. The predicted outcomes provide a foundation for healthcare decision-makers and policymakers to understand the potential clinical and socioeconomic value of aducanumab.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)919-940
Number of pages22
JournalNeurology and Therapy
Issue number2
StatePublished - Dec 2021


  • Aducanumab
  • Alzheimer’s dementia
  • Alzheimer’s disease
  • Amyloid plaques
  • Disease-modifying therapy
  • Economic model
  • Institutionalization
  • Markov model
  • Natural history
  • Progression


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