Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma incidence and mortality trends in the United States, 1973–2013

Objective: To analyze oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma incidence and mortality trends in the United States for the years 1973 through 2013. Study Design: Cross-sectional study using a large population-based cancer database. Methods: Data on incidence and mortality rates were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 9 Database. Annual percentage change in rates was calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis (National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD). Results: Incidence rates increased (annual percent change [APC]; 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17 to 2.88) from 1973 to 1983, remained stable (APC −0.52, 95% CI −1.30 to 0.26) from 1983 to 1997, and increased (APC 1.32, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.81) from 1997 to 2013. Overall, incidence rates increased for males (APC 0.73, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.25) but not females (APC −0.77, 95% CI −0.68 to 0.82). Incidence rates increased in the white population (APC 0.79, 95% CI 0.33 to 1.25) but decreased in the black population (APC −0.72, 95% CI −1.41 to −0.02). The incidence rates increased for tongue-base tumors (APC 1.17, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.92) and tonsil tumors (APC 0.47, 95% CI 1.10 to 4.96) but decreased for other sites. Incidence-based mortality decreased (APC −0.78, 95% CI −1.13 to −0.42) from 1993 to 2013. Conclusion: Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma incidence rates increased in a nonlinear fashion from 1973 to 2013, whereas mortality rates declined. This, along with variation in trends by demographic and tumor factors, suggest that human papilloma virus is the main driver of the recent rise in incidence. Level of Evidence: 2b. Laryngoscope, 128:1582–1588, 2018.