Modeling the Relationship Between Firearm Restrictions, Medicaid Expansion, and Political Partisanship with Pediatric Firearm Mortality Costs

Introduction: Firearms are now the leading cause of pediatric mortality in the U.S., but few studies have investigated the economic impact of these deaths. Thus, this study determined whether multiple different gun-related measures, political partisanship and Medicaid expansion were related to the costs of pediatric gun deaths. Methods: Each states’ medical costs, years of potential life lost (YPLL), and value of statistical life (VSL) lost due to pediatric gun deaths were extracted from the WISQARS database from 2015 to 2020. Seven firearm laws or restrictiveness measures (assault weapons bans, child access prevention laws, firearm registration and permit to purchase requirements, safe storage laws, Giffords Law Center ranking, and the number of firearm provisions), the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI), and Medicaid expansion status were determined across states. Unadjusted analyses compared each measure and (1) medical costs, (2) VSL, and (3) YPLL for each state. These were repeated using adjusted analyses, controlling for poverty, educational attainment, poor mental health, and race. Results: Of the 9 variables assessed, unadjusted analyses revealed that 8 variables were significantly associated with increased medical costs, all 9 were associated with higher VSL and 8 were associated with higher YPLL due to pediatric firearm-related mortality. Multivariable analyses revealed that 7 variables were associated with medical costs, 7 were associated with VSL and 6 were associated with YPLL. Conclusion: States with fewer gun laws and those which have not adopted Medicaid expansion were more likely to experience a higher economic burden due to pediatric gun deaths. Quantifying the costs of these deaths can demonstrate the social toll of gun violence to policymakers and the general public. Level of Evidence: III.