Modeling the case of early detection of ebola virus disease

Diego Chowell, Muntaser Safan, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

2 Scopus citations


The most recent Ebola outbreak inWest Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we develop and analyze amathematical model to assess the impact of early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals on the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in West Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing integrated control measures of early diagnosis and isolation. The mathematical analysis shows a threshold where early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals, combined with a sufficient level of effective isolation, can lead to an epidemic control of Ebola virus disease.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases
PublisherSpringer International Publishing
Number of pages14
ISBN (Electronic)9783319404134
ISBN (Print)9783319404110
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2016
Externally publishedYes


  • Early detection
  • Ebola virus disease
  • Point-of-care testing
  • Pre-symptomatic infection


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