Longitudinal analysis of patient specific predictors for mortality in sickle cell disease

Introduction White Blood Cell (WBC) count, %HbF, and serum creatinine (Cr), have been identified as markers for increased mortality in sickle cell anemia (SCA) but no studies have examined the significance of longitudinal rate of change in these or other biomarkers for SCA individuals. Methods Clinical, demographic and laboratory data from SCA patients seen in 2002 by our hospital system were obtained. Those who were still followed in 2012 (survival cohort) were compared to those who had died in the interim (mortality cohort). Patients lost to follow-up were excluded. Age adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to assess hazard ratios of mortality risk associated with the direction and degree of change for each variable. Results 359 SCA patients were identified. Baseline higher levels of WBC, serum creatinine and hospital admissions were associated with increased mortality, as were alkaline phosphatase and aspartate aminotransaminase levels. Lower baseline levels of %HbF were also associated with increased mortality. When longitudinal rates of change for individuals were assessed, increases in Hb or WBC over patient baseline values were associated with greater mortality risk (HR 1.54, p = 0.02 and HR 1.16, p = 0.01 with negative predictive values of 87.8 and 94.4 respectively), while increasing ED use was associated with decreased mortality (HR 0.84, p = 0.01). We did not detect any increased mortality risk for longitudinal changes in annual clinic visits or admissions, creatinine or %HbF. Conclusions Although initial steady state observations can help predict survival in SCA, the longitudinal course of a patient may give additional prognostic information.