Identification of women at high risk of postpartum psychiatric episodes: A population-based study quantifying relative and absolute risks following exposure to selected risk factors and genetic liability

Background: We quantified relative and absolute risks of postpartum psychiatric episodes (PPE) following risk factors: Young age, past personal or family history of psychiatric disorders, and genetic liability. Methods: We conducted a register-based study using the iPSYCH2012 case-cohort sample. Exposures were personal history of psychiatric episodes prior to childbirth, being a young mother (giving birth before the age of 21.5 years), having a family history of psychiatric disorders, and a high (highest quartile) polygenic score (PGS) for major depression. PPE was defined within 12 months postpartum by prescription of psychotropic medication or in- and outpatient contact to a psychiatric facility. We included primiparous women born 1981–1999, giving birth before January 1st, 2016. We conducted Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) of PPE, absolute risks were calculated using cumulative incidence functions. Results: We included 8174 primiparous women, and the estimated baseline PPE risk was 6.9% (95% CI 6.0%–7.8%, number of PPE cases: 2169). For young mothers with a personal and family history of psychiatric disorders, the absolute risk of PPE was 21.6% (95% CI 15.9%–27.8%). Adding information on high genetic liability to depression, the risk increased to 29.2% (95% CI 21.3%–38.4%) for PPE. Conclusions: Information on prior personal and family psychiatric episodes as well as age may assist in estimating a personalized risk of PPE. Furthermore, additional information on genetic liability could add even further to this risk assessment.