Hydroclimatic variables and acute gastro-intestinal illness in British Columbia, Canada: A time series analysis

Using epidemiologic time series analysis, we examine associations between three hydroclimatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and streamflow) and waterborne acute gastro-intestinal illness (AGI) in two communities in the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The communities were selected to represent the major hydroclimatic regimes that characterize BC: rainfall-dominated and snowfall dominated. Our results show that the number of monthly cases of AGI increased with increasing temperature, precipitation, and streamflow in the same month in the context of a rainfall-dominated regime, and with increasing streamflow in the previous month in the context of a snowfall-dominated regime. These results suggest that hydroclimatology plays a role in driving the occurrence and variability of AGI in these settings. Further, this study highlights that the nature and magnitude of the effects of hydroclimatic variability on AGI are different in the context of a snowfall-dominated regime versus a rainfall-dominated regimes. We conclude by proposing that the watershed may be an appropriate context for enhancing our understanding of the complex linkages between hydroclimatic variability and waterborne illness in the context of a changing climate.