Global, regional, and national burdens of eating disorders in adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2040

Background: The global prevalence of eating disorders has been rising, contributing to premature mortality and substantial health burdens among adolescents and young adults. However, long-term trends and future projections remain understudied in this population. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021, with eating disorder diagnoses according to ICD-10 criteria, we estimated age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates with 95 % uncertainty intervals (UIs). Temporal trends were evaluated using average annual percent change (AAPC) and joinpoint regression. Decomposition analysis evaluated contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes to DALY trends. Future burden until 2040 was projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort models and Poisson regression. Results: From 1990 to 2021, global age-standardized rates for prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of eating disorders among individuals aged 10–24 years all increased significantly (AAPC for each = 0.53). In 2021, the global prevalence rate was 357.10 per 100,000 population, incidence was 380.96 per 100,000 person-years, and DALYs reached 76.51 per 100,000 population. Females had notably higher prevalence (466.37 [300.21–701.00]) than males. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions had the highest prevalence (786.08 [516.77–1186.58]), while middle SDI regions experienced the fastest increase (AAPC 1.18 [1.15–1.21]). By 2040, the global prevalence is projected to reach 373.48 per 100,000. Conclusions: Eating disorders among adolescents and young adults are growing global health challenges, with rising trends expected through 2040. Economic development and cultural changes are key drivers. These findings highlight urgent needs for early detection, accessible treatment, and culturally tailored public health interventions.