Further Evidence that Subsyndromal Manifestations of Depression in Childhood Predict the Subsequent Development of Major Depression: A Replication Study in a 10 Year Longitudinally Assessed Sample

Background: We have previously shown that subsyndromal scores on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL)-Anxiety/Depression (Anx/Dep) scale at baseline predicted the subsequent development of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) in youth with ADHD. The present study aimed to replicate these findings in a separate, long-term, longitudinal sample of children at high- and low- risk for depression. Methods: 219 children of parents with and without depression and/or anxiety, ages 2-25, were stratified into 3 groups: 1) children with familial risk for depression (by presence of parental MDD) plus subsyndromal scores on the CBCL-Anx/Dep scale, 2) children with familial risk for depression without subsyndromal scores, and 3) children with neither familial risk for depression nor subsyndromal scores. Subjects were reassessed at both 5 and 10 year follow-ups. Results: Children with both subsyndromal scores on the CBCL-Anx/Dep plus a familial risk for depression were at greater risk for developing MDD at the 10 year follow-up when compared with all other groups. Those with familial risk but no subsyndromal scores had an intermediate risk that was greater than the controls, who had the lowest risk. Limitations: The recruitment of the study included families with parental panic disorder, so the sample likely included more families with anxiety disorders than the general population. Conclusions: Our results showed that subsyndromal scores of the CBCL-Anx/Dep scale increased the risk for the subsequent development of MDD, particularly in children at high risk for depression. These results confirm the CBCL-Anx/Dep scale's utility in identifying children at high risk for developing MDD.