Declining use of primary care among commercially insured adults in the United States, 2008 –2016

Background: Primary care is known to improve outcomes and lower health care costs, prompting recent U.S. policy efforts to expand its role. Nonetheless, there is early evidence of a decline in per capita primary care visit rates, and little is understood about what is contributing to the decline. Objective: To describe primary care provider (PCP) visit trends among adults enrolled with a large, national, commercial insurer and assess factors underlying a potential decline in PCP visits. Design: Descriptive repeated cross-sectional study using 100% deidentified claims data from the insurer, 2008–2016. A 5% claims sample was used for Poisson regression models to quantify visit trends. Setting: National, population-based. Participants: Adult health plan members aged 18 to 64 years. Measurements: PCP visit rates per 100 member-years. Results: In total, 142 million primary care visits among 94 million member-years were examined. Visits to PCPs declined by 24.2%, from 169.5 to 134.3 visits per 100 member-years, while the proportion of adults with no PCP visits in a given year rose from 38.1% to 46.4%. Rates of visits addressing low-acuity conditions decreased by 47.7% (95% CI, -48.1% to -47.3%). The decline was largest among the youngest adults (-27.6% [CI, -28.2% to -27.1%]), those without chronic conditions (-26.4% [CI, -26.7% to -26.1%]), and those living in the lowest-income areas (-31.4% [CI, -31.8% to -30.9%]). Out-of-pocket cost per problem-based visit rose by $9.4 (31.5%). Visit rates to specialists remained stable (-0.08% [CI, -0.56% to 0.40%]), and visits to alternative venues, such as urgent care clinics, increased by 46.9% (CI, 45.8% to 48.1%). Limitation: Data were limited to a single commercial insurer and did not capture nonbilled clinician–patient interactions. Conclusion: Commercially insured adults have been visiting PCPs less often, and nearly one half had no PCP visits in a given year by 2016. Our results suggest that this decline may be explained by decreased real or perceived visit needs, financial deterrents, and use of alternative sources of care.