Correlation between variant allele frequency and mean tumor molecules with tumor burden in patients with solid tumors

Several studies have demonstrated the prognostic value of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA); however, the correlation of mean tumor molecules (MTM)/ml of plasma and mean variant allele frequency (mVAF; %) with clinical parameters is yet to be understood. In this study, we analyzed ctDNA data in a pan-cancer cohort of 23 543 patients who had ctDNA testing performed using a personalized, tumor-informed assay (Signatera™, mPCR-NGS assay). For ctDNA-positive patients, the correlation between MTM/ml and mVAF was examined. Two subanalyses were performed: (a) to establish the association of ctDNA with tumor volume and (b) to assess the correlation between ctDNA dynamics and patient outcomes. On a global cohort, a positive correlation between MTM/ml and mVAF was observed. Among 18 426 patients with longitudinal ctDNA measurements, 13.3% had discordant trajectories between MTM/ml and mVAF at subsequent time points. In metastatic patients receiving immunotherapy (N = 51), changes in ctDNA levels expressed both in MTM/ml and mVAF showed a statistically significant association with progression-free survival; however, the correlation with MTM/ml was numerically stronger.