Construction and validation of a prognostic index for patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma

Chigusa Morizane, Takuji Okusaka, Satoshi Morita, Katsuaki Tanaka, Hideki Ueno, Shunsuke Kondo, Masafumi Ikeda, Kohei Nakachi, Shuichi Mitsunaga

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

36 Scopus citations

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To identify prognostic factors in patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma. METHODS: The relationship between patient characteristics and outcome was examined by multivariate regression analyses of data from 409 consecutive patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma who had been treated with a gemcitabine-containing regimen, and we stratified the patients into 3 risk groups according to the number of prognostic factors they had for a poor outcome. A validation data set obtained from 145 patients who had been treated with agents other than gemcitabine was analyzed. The prognostic index was applied the each of the patients. RESULTS: The multivariate regression analyses revealed that the presence of pain, peritoneal dissemination, liver metastasis, and an elevated serum C-reactive protein value significantly contributed to a shorter survival time. The patients were stratified into 3 groups according to their number of risk factors, and their outcomes of the 3 groups were significantly different. When the prognostic index was applied to the validation data set, the respective outcomes of the 3 groups were found to be significantly differed from each other. CONCLUSIONS: Pain, peritoneal dissemination, liver metastasis, and an elevated serum C-reactive protein value are important prognostic factors for patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)415-421
Number of pages7
JournalPancreas
Volume40
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2011
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • chemotherapy
  • multivariate analyses
  • pancreatic cancer
  • prognostic factor
  • prognostic index
  • validation

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