Cancer mortality predictions for 2019 in Latin America

Greta Carioli, Paola Bertuccio, Matteo Malvezzi, Teresa Rodriguez, Fabio Levi, Paolo Boffetta, Carlo La Vecchia, Eva Negri

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    43 Scopus citations

    Abstract

    We estimated mortality figures for 2019 in seven Latin American countries, with focus on breast cancer. We retrieved cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and PAHO databases. We obtained mortality statistics for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela for 1970–2015. We predicted current death numbers and age-standardised (world population) mortality rates using joinpoint regression models. Total cancer mortality is predicted to decline in all countries and both sexes, except Argentinian women. Cuba had the highest all cancer rates for 2019, 136.9/100,000 men and 90.4 women, while Mexico showed the lowest ones, 63.8/100,000 men and 61.9 women. Stomach cancer showed favourable trends over the whole period, while colorectal cancer only recently. Lung cancer rates declined in men, while in women they decreased slightly over the most recent years, only. In Cuban women, lung cancer rates overtook breast cancer ones. Breast cancer showed overall favourable trends, but rates are rising in young women. Prostate and uterine cancer had favourable trends. Pancreas, ovary, bladder and leukaemias showed slightly decreasing trends. Between 1990 and 2019, mortality from all neoplasms is predicted to fall by about 18% in Argentina, 26% in Chile, 14% in Colombia, 17% in Mexico and 13% in Venezuela, corresponding to almost 0.5 million avoided cancer deaths. No decline was observed in Brazil and Cuba. Of concern, the persisting high rates of (cervix) uterus cancer, the high lung cancer rates in Cuba, the possible increases in breast cancer in young women, and the lack of overall declines in Brazil, Cuba and Venezuelan men.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)619-632
    Number of pages14
    JournalInternational Journal of Cancer
    Volume147
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    StatePublished - 1 Aug 2020

    Keywords

    • Latin America
    • breast cancer
    • cancer
    • mortality
    • projections

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Cancer mortality predictions for 2019 in Latin America'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this