Associations of kidney disease measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease in individuals with and without diabetes: A meta-analysis

Caroline S. Fox, Kunihiro Matsushita, Mark Woodward, Henk J.G. Bilo, John Chalmers, Hiddo J. Lambers Heerspink, Brian J. Lee, Robert M. Perkins, Peter Rossing, Toshimi Sairenchi, Marcello Tonelli, Joseph A. Vassalotti, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Josef Coresh, Paul E. De Jong, Chi Pang Wen, Robert G. Nelson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

884 Scopus citations


Background Chronic kidney disease is characterised by low estimated glomerular fi ltration rate (eGFR) and high albuminuria, and is associated with adverse outcomes. Whether these risks are modifi ed by diabetes is unknown. Methods We did a meta-analysis of studies selected according to Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium criteria. Data transfer and analyses were done between March, 2011, and June, 2012. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) associated with eGFR and albuminuria in individuals with and without diabetes. Findings We analysed data for 1 024 977 participants (128 505 with diabetes) from 30 general population and highrisk cardiovascular cohorts and 13 chronic kidney disease cohorts. In the combined general population and highrisk cohorts with data for all-cause mortality, 75 306 deaths occurred during a mean follow-up of 8•5 years (SD 5•0). In the 23 studies with data for cardiovascular mortality, 21 237 deaths occurred from cardiovascular disease during a mean follow-up of 9•2 years (SD 4•9). In the general and high-risk cohorts, mortality risks were 1•2-1•9 times higher for participants with diabetes than for those without diabetes across the ranges of eGFR and albumin-tocreatinine ratio (ACR). With fi xed eGFR and ACR reference points in the diabetes and no diabetes groups, HR of mortality outcomes according to lower eGFR and higher ACR were much the same in participants with and without diabetes (eg, for all-cause mortality at eGFR 45 mL/min per 1•73 m2 [vs 95 mL/min per 1•73 m2], HR 1•35; 95% CI 1•18-1•55; vs 1•33; 1•19-1•48 and at ACR 30 mg/g [vs 5 mg/g], 1•50; 1•35-1•65 vs 1•52; 1•38-1•67). The overall interactions were not signifi cant. We identifi ed much the same fi ndings for ESRD in the chronic kidney disease cohorts. Interpretation Despite higher risks for mortality and ESRD in diabetes, the relative risks of these outcomes by eGFR and ACR are much the same irrespective of the presence or absence of diabetes, emphasising the importance of kidney disease as a predictor of clinical outcomes. Funding US National Kidney Foundation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1662-1673
Number of pages12
JournalThe Lancet
Issue number9854
StatePublished - Nov 2012
Externally publishedYes


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