Association between age at diabetes onset or diabetes duration and subsequent risk of pancreatic cancer: Results from a longitudinal cohort and mendelian randomization study

Background: The aim of the study is to estimate the incidence of pancreatic cancer among individuals with new-onset type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) and evaluate the relationship of pancreatic cancer risk with age at diabetes onset and diabetes duration. Methods: This longitudinal cohort study included 428,362 new-onset T2DM patients in Shanghai and Mendelian randomization (MR) in the east-Asian population were used to investigate the association. Incidence rates of pancreatic cancer in all patients and by subgroups were calculated and compared to the general population. Findings: A total of 1056 incident pancreatic cancer cases were identified during eight consecutive years of follow-up. The overall pancreatic cancer annual incidence rate was 55·28/100,000 person years in T2DM patients, higher than that in the general population, with a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of 1·54 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1·45–1·64). The incidence of pancreatic cancer increased with age and a significantly higher incidence was observed in the older groups with T2DM. However, the relative pancreatic cancer risk was inversely related to age of T2DM onset, and a higher SIR of 5·73 (95%CI, 4·49–7·22) was observed in the 20–54 years old group. The risk of pancreatic cancer was elevated at any diabetes duration. Fasting blood glucose ≥10·0 mmol/L was associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. MR analysis indicated a positive association between T2DM and pancreatic cancer risk. Interpretation: Efforts toward early and close follow-up programs, especially in individuals with young-onset T2DM, and the improvement of glucose control might represent effective strategies for improving the detection and results of treatment of pancreatic cancer. Funding: Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.