Early liver transplantation (LT) for alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is the fastest growing indication for LT, but prediction of harmful alcohol use post-LT remains limited. Among 10 ACCELERATE-AH centers, we examined psychosocial evaluations from consecutive LT recipients for AH from 2006 to 2017. A multidisciplinary panel used content analysis to develop a maximal list of psychosocial variables. We developed an artificial intelligence model to predict post-LT harmful alcohol use. The cohort included training (N = 91 among 8 centers) and external validation (N = 25 among 2 centers) sets, with median follow-up of 4.4 (IQR 3.0–6.0) years post-LT. In the training set, AUC was 0.930 (95%CI 0.862–0.998) with positive predictive value of 0.891 (95%CI 0.620–1.000), internally validated through fivefold cross-validation. In the external validation set, AUC was 0.692 (95%CI 0.666–0.718) with positive predictive value of 0.82 (95%CI 0.625–1.000). The model identified specific variables related to social support and substance use as highly important to predict post-LT harmful alcohol use. We retrospectively developed and validated a model that identified psychosocial profiles at LT predicting harmful alcohol use post-LT for AH. This preliminary model may inform selection and post-LT management for AH and warrants prospective evaluation in larger studies among all alcohol-associated liver disease being considered for early LT.
|Number of pages||8|
|Journal||American Journal of Transplantation|
|State||Published - Jul 2022|
- alcoholism and substance abuse
- clinical research/practice
- liver transplantation/hepatology
- risk assessment/risk stratification